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lailemofTARİX: BAZAR ERTƏSİ, 2014-10-06, 6:07 AM | Message # 1
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Is Still a 'Sell'

Last week I slapped a rating on Tiffany Co. (NYSE:TIF). Despite Wall Street love for the stock, I was convinced the company sales exposure in Japan would prove more troubling than most investors anticipated.

And I was right.

In this morning earnings announcement, chief executive officer, Michael J. Kowalski said, preparing our financial expectations for 2011, we have assumed some continued periodic store closings or limited store hours in Japan through the end of the first <a href=http://www.saletiffanyjewellery.co.uk>tiffany uk outlet</a> quarter with total Japan sales declining 15%. As a result, management reduced overall earnings expectations by $0.05 or about 8%.

Of course, these numbers represent management best estimates. Treat them accordingly. Truth is, there a strong possibility Tiffany overall sales and profit decline could end up being much worse. After all, Tiffany stores that generate <a href=http://www.saletiffanyjewellery.co.uk>cheap tiffany jewelry uk</a> more than 50% of Japan sales are still closed or operating on reduced hours.

The Great Unknown: Consumer Demand

As Frederic Bastiat pointed out over a century ago, good economist takes into account both the effect that can be seen and those effects that cannot be seen. While Tiffany seems to have a handle on the immediate effects of the crisis in Japan, the company extremely vulnerable to effects that cannot be seen" specifically, the unknown psychological effects on Japanese consumers.

Keep in mind, it only been 10 days since the earthquake and tsunami hit Japan. To assume the Japanese consumer is going to spring back to buying anytime in the near future is foolish and arrogant.

As I said last week:

Our own behavior in the United States underscores the inevitability of demand destruction in the wake of a crisis. As the recession unfolded, consumers shunned high end retailers like Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN) and Saks (NYSE:SKS) and instead flocked to deep discounters like Family Dollar Stores (NYSE:FDO) and Big Lots (NYSE:BIG). In turn, the share prices of the former plummeted, while the discount retailers prices soared.

And I convinced the demand destruction in Japan promises to be even more severe for one simple reason: Unlike the financial <a href=http://www.tiffanyoutlet-2014.com>tiffany outlet</a> crisis, this crisis involves significant loss of life. When you mourning the loss of loved ones, the last thing you do is go <a href=http://www.saletiffanyjewellery.co.uk>tiffany jewelry cheap</a> buy expensive jewelry.

Or, more simply put, Tiffany stores might be <a href=http://www.outlet-canada-goose.com>canada goose jackets</a> open for business but there might not be any business.

Lackluster Growth and a Rich Valuation

Even if I completely wrong about the lingering impact on consumer behavior, Tiffany Japan operations aren exactly a <a href=http://www.sacchanelpascher2014.com>chanel sac</a> bastion of strength. Consider the latest results:

<Click>to enlarge]

While fourth quarter and year to date sales jumped by double digit margins in the Americas, Asia Pacific and Europe, Japan lagged well behind. On a constant exchange rate basis, Japan sales only mustered a 2% increase for the quarter and actually declined 1% year to date.

Unless you like putting hard earned capital at undue risk, steer clear of Tiffany. Any short term bounce in share prices is likely to be just that short term. Over the longer term, Japan operations promise to weigh on results for at least the next quarter. If any slowdowns in global consumer spending materialize, Tiffany earnings could suffer a big hit.

And given the stock current valuation, there little room for error. Based on price to earnings ratios, shares trade at almost a 40% premium to the average stock in the S 500.

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